As OP said volume leveling is acceptable, something like this will do.
Modifying HDMI video signal is simply impossible due to DMCA and bla bla bla. But not all hope is lost though. You can overlay opaque video on top of another encrypted stream via this little box. This is an old project per se and I have no idea if still available, but with some dirty work you might able to detect the increase of volume or match of an algo or something with a total black screen overlay on top.