It's true that the toolset isn't here now, and the network is actually very fragile at the moment.
It's also true that platform builders don't seem to want to deal with these kinds of tools, for raisins.
But it's also true that temporary blocks are both effective and not that big of a deal.
I'm not sure why you'd think that manual moderation will lead to small instances getting barred, though. Unless you're predicting that federation will move to whitelisting, rather than blacklisting? That's historically been the tool of corporate services, not personal or community ones.