Obsidian is reaching market criticality so I’m expecting enshitification any time now.
You could be right, but I'm not 100% sure of that. From the article:
Keeping the team small and spurning outside investment is Obsidian’s way of avoiding incentives that might lead the company astray.
If they can stick to that, they can avoid going downhill. The main driver for enshittification is big shareholders that want the company to keep growing -- shareholders don't care about stable profitability, they need growth for their ownership stake to increase in value. If Obsidian is profitable now and they're fine with just keeping it that way, they can make it work.