Even agents suffer from the same problem stated above: you can't trust them.
Compare it to a traditional SQL database. If the DB says, that it saved a row or that there are 40 rows in the table, then that's true. They do have bugs, obviously, but in general you can trust them.
AI agents don't have that level of reliability. They'll happily tell you that the empty database has all the 509 entries you expect them to have. Sure, you can improve reliability, but you won't get anywhere near the DB example.
And I think that's what makes it so hard to extrapolate progress. AI fails miserably at absolute basic tasks and doesn't even see that it failed. Success seems more chance than science. That's the opposite of how every technology before worked. Simple problems first, if that's solved, you push towards the next challenge. AI in contrast is remarkably good at some highly complex tasks, but then fails at basic reasoning a minute later.