I'm referencing ChatGPT's initial benchmarks to its capabilities to today. Observable improvements have been made in less than two years. Even if you just want to track time from the development of modern LLM transformers (All You Need is Attention/BERT), it's still a short history with major gains (alexnet isn't really meaningfully related). These haven't been incremental changes on a slow and steady march to AI sometime in the scifi scale future.