I would only disagree on your “near future” prediction. I don’t totally disagree — maybe it will — but I’d caution that a lot of new tech gets a shit ton (metric) of hype when the “easy” problems are solved and the last 10-20% can take forever or just need too much money, power, resources, whatever to solve. (Like we see with self-driving cars where it’s tantalizingly close but edge cases are really hard.)
Technological progress doesn’t always continue in a straight line or improve exponentially. The S-curve is far more common. With A.I., your guess is as good as mine on where we are on that curve but don’t be shocked if progress stalls somewhere even if it’s temporary. (You could imagine a situation where the models are advancing faster than Nvidia or electricity infrastructure.)