I don't know what this is about, but it reminds me of the constant ev-bashing in most major newspapers over the last two decades (since the beginning). I believe it's oil money in the press, and definitely had effect on the overall conversation, especially discouraging small evs, but not clear effect on policy. It just keeps consumers from adopting.
Those articles pulled a lot of weight because my province over the last few years have removed all purchase incentives for EVs. The gov used to give up to $10k CAD rebates for electric vehicles. They recently got rid of it and after the election next year, they’ll fully get rid of all remaining incentives.
Incentives are great for a few years but then they just become part of the price. Most provinces will eventually remove their incentives towards EV as they become mainstream or at least transition to a subset of EVs maybe leaving out those considered luxury.
What they shouldn't stop investing in is the infrastructure making those EVs a reliable alternative.
Do you see EVs being mainstream anytime soon? There are no places to charge (spare for a few big businesses in the bigger cities) and EVs are often double the price of their gas counterparts.
The infrastructure is growing quite fast considering how young the whole EV market is.
As for the price that's exactly what blanket incentives would do. Affordable EVs are hardly developed currently because people buy larger more expensive (profitable) vehicules that would normally be 10k+ over their budget and that 10k is free money in the pockets of the manufacturers. Start giving incentives only for affordable EVs and they will start appearing all over the place
The smaller affordable EVs are not available in the North American market. The only choice North American consumers have is the large over the top unaffordable EVs. If consumers literally have no choice, surprise surprise they do with what they have access to.
Incentives in this sense really do nothing except subsidize luxury cars for the rich. Cheap EVs are available all over Europe and China but they are purposefully kept out of North America.
There is no political will or interest to actually switch over.
Unfortunately here public transport is seen as something best left to 'the market', instead of treating it as a public commodity which gets its economic value from enabling people to contribute to economy by enabling them to get to work, go shopping etc. So now ticket prices are ridiculous, to the point where taking the car is 2-3 times cheaper. And of course you'll need to get to said transport first. Need a bus? If you do not live in a city or larger town you're just shit out of luck after 18:00 or so. Need to be somewhere, somewhat early in the morning? Wel tough luck for you, make sure to have somebody with a car standby to drop you off at the nearest train station. I want to like public transport and consider it fun, but my experience every time I try it is pain, suffering and awkward schedules instead. ☹️
Depends on how badly gouged your "local" prices are...
Where I live some train lines have gotten way better in recent times, others still cost an arm and a leg with unreliable trains and if you allow amortized car costs the car might still be competitive... (although I absolutely grant you that utility factoring in the amount of stuff you can do on a train ride both long and short is way way higher than while driving)
It's definitely not generally cheaper in Germany if you only need to move regional. But I'm interested in a comparison with any other country. I guess an urban area would be a requirement for a fair comparison.
If you care to look further into this, look for cost per kilometer estimates, factoring all the costs of owning your own vehicle vs. the cost per kilometer of taking public transit.
Unfortunately it's easier (say: cheaper) to make driving so expensive and hard that it makes public transport look like the carrot, than actually making public transport more attractive so it actually becomes the carrot.
But then they call you insane because transit very obviously shitty. Like i shill for the alternatives but its barely functional most of the time, much less pleasant
Feel free to spit on the current state of transit; it's shit in so many places and there's no pretending otherwise. It's important to stress that the transit will be unrecognizable from current state if properly funded. If people think I'm talking about them ditching their cars, getting on the existing transit and watching their trip times go up 292%, they'd be right to dismiss me.
If you're interested in theory on this subject I'd recommend looking into "theory of practice". It's all about this and, like with every single other good urban planning thing, it's not at all new. We just pretend like it is so that politicians might finally do something other than build a fucking road.
Didn't the people of Paris vote in favour for charging triple car parking chargers for SUV's? I'd like to see this more.
SUV sales have been crazy the last few years in the UK (I assume the rest of the EU too given every manufacturer starting making many different models of SUV's). They stopped making people carriers in favour for SUV's :(
I'm all for making fun of the Cybertruck, and anything from Felon Husk really, but I'd bet real money that thumbnail photo was doctored. I tried searching around for verified photos of rust but nothing substantial came up from a reputable source. Anyway, just wanted to point this out.
If that’s what people want to do on their own, that’s fine. My issue is when they hand it to you saying it’s a joint, only to be surprised when it’s basically a cigarette with a tiny bit of weed sprinkled in. I hate smoking tobacco.
I’ve quickly learned to always ask what is actually in it before accepting.
If I use any tobacco at all, its just pure tobacco at the tip as a filter. You dont really smoke it if you dont want to, but it prevents wasted flowers
I did not refer to the name but to the ratio. It very much depends on the scene imo. It reaches from pure weed in the reggae scene, a 1:1 mix in the hiphop scene, to almost pure tobacco in "weekend weed smoker" scenes and also just depends a lot on the individual who rolled. That is of course only my personal experience.
Electric bikes have become really popular and common here in Denmark. I only have around 5km to work, so no need for an electric one, but if I had perhaps 20km to work, I’d buy an electric bicycle instantly.
I have 30km to work and it's along high speed roads. Electric bike is unsuitable and will eat about an hour each way. With the shifts I do I can't compromise my precious home hours.
Some people need traditional cars and I'm one of them. I won't share my job but before you say I should move job I really can't lol.
So because you think alternatives that don't exist should you would raise gas prices and obscene amount and put people on the streets?
I live in a small rural town where everybody commutes to their factory job and is already barely scraping by. What do you think all those people should do to stave off being homeless when they can't afford to drive?
I don't think rural living makes sense if you're also commuting. Small towns can have good transport links to other nearby towns but I don't think it makes sense to support those who decide they want to live beyond the practical reach of public services just for the sake of it.
I understand that you're doing a thought experiment about futuristic utopias but I am talking about the current situation right now and a comment that started this chain.
People live in rural areas whether you think they should or not and raising gas prices to reduce car travel disproportionately affects those people.
Now, if there was some way for poor people to get fuel credits or something so that they're empowered with mobility maybe that would work.
We also should probably not make farming any harder than it already is.
In 2020 according to statistics82.66% of all americans lived in cities, not spread across half the state. Urban areas and country side should be developed differently of course.
There are other places in the world who do this much better than the US. How about instead of assuming it's impossible because you haven't seen it you consider that it is, in fact, possible but the image has been designed to make it appear impossible by those benefiting from it not being done.
Also, choosing to live away from work is a choice. Suburbia is a choice, and actually one that costs more money in taxes than it makes over time, requiring it to continue to expand or admit it doesn't work. You can choose to live closer, or even choose to bike to a bus stop/train station/whatever that is positioned reasonably if things weren't designed around making car and gas company executives rich.
Yes it is. It always is. There may be a premium, but there's a cost to car ownership and usage as well, but also more importantly there's taxes we all pay to keep rural or suburban life possible. Suburbs actually take more on taxes than they produce. The problem is that cost is socialized, which is fine if more costs were socialized.
@Cethin@space_comrade More aptly: "designing society so that the only affordable housing is far from jobs that we require people to have to deem them worthy of existing" is a choice.
There are many things we can change to fix this.
Further, there are many things that should be changed to fix this.
No it just fucking isn't. You really think every place of work magically has dozens of free apartments close to it and you can just hop to a different one every time you change jobs? What fucking fantasy land do you live in?
Raising the gas prices 10x overnight won't create those alternatives overnight, nor will it put petrol companies out of business because they pass the cost on to consumers who are mostly forced to buy gas at whatever the current price is with no other viable transportation method.
Infrastructure takes time. Sadly the US govt isn't even at the starting line for any meaningful public transit system in most cities.
If gas prices went up 10x overnight, some higher earners could switch to working from home (a positive result), but other industries such as retail don't really get that luxury.. Contributing to more wealth inequality
Yes, but that alternative infrastructure needs to be in place before you can start really discouraging cars with, for example, high gas prices. Raising gas prices to that extent right now in most places outside of a few major cities would just cause people not to be able to get to work.
In my Australian city they keep restricting more and more free parking areas near town, pushing the problem out into nearby residential areas when it’s still free, merely a few more minutes walk away.
All the while, not improving any bus services.
The cognitive disconnection is amazing.
Then again, the people running the city council will all have dedicated parking spaces just outside their offices.
Nah. Public policy isn't a neat project plan you can accomplish in chronological order. The measurement of good policy isn't whether or not there are zero negative impacts on lower income folks.
The status quo is bad. Do what's possible. If you can raise gas prices do it. If you can increase transit do it. Each improvement will virtuously reinforce other improvements.
You can obviously do whatever policy advocacy you want. IMO it's not actually possible to make walking, biking and transit more convenient and less costly than driving without increasing the cost of driving. Higher gas prices and better transit reinforces each other.
Meanwhile the existing pollution and car dependency creates real harm every day it persists.
It seems pretty obvious to me that we're not mitigating harm to low income or marginalized folks by making it cheap for middle class folks to pollute and cause traffic violence, despite whatever benefits people might get from low gas prices.
I can't speak to Australian demographics but in the US the lowest decile of income is 9 times more likely to not own a car. So they don't get any benefits from low gas prices but they still have to pay the costs of pollution, traffic violence and a political economy that hates transit because driving is so cheap and easy for the middle class.
It has a service every four minutes during the morning and evening peak.
I've attached a screenshot from Google Maps showing what's typical 8am morning commute would look like from Rouse Hill to Macquarie University and the Macquarie Park business precinct.
It's typically 40 minutes by car. You have to have your hands on the wheel. You're stuck in traffic. That's if you pay $9.56 or $14.13 for a toll road, which is a bit quicker.
Or you can take the Metro.
Trains run every four minutes during the morning peak, so you can turn up and go. It's a modern service with driverless trains and platform-screen doors.
It takes 32 minutes — so it's the faster option. And you can do other things during your commute.
(I've attached a screenshot, please note you might need to see the original post to view it.)
The train is the faster and more convenient option.
Why wouldn't you take the Metro?
This isn't because the state government has done anything to hobble road driving.
It's because the NSW State Government has invested in building a good quality, frequent Metro service to the northwestern suburbs.
The Metro has been a catalyst for building a number of transit-oriented developments at each of the stations. For the people living in those apartments, there's a clear winner.
The problem is that for around 70 years after WW2, governments have zoned whole suburbs for low-density residential.
These car-dependent suburbs, cars were the only viable option for getting to work, school, or shopping. By design.
At best, there's an often unreliable bus that runs every 20 minutes during the peak. And that's it.
At least in Australia, they tend to be on the outer fringes of the major metropolitan areas. Wealthier people with a choice tend to prefer inner-urban areas with better public transport.
If you just hit people in these areas with taxes and fines without a compelling alternative, and you're effectively levelling a poor tax.
Give people access to good quality public transport — and yes it can be faster than being stuck in traffic — and they'll choose it.
Everyone understands that transit is terrible in car dependent suburbs. Low gas prices are a direct cause of that. Yes, if you leave from a station and go to another station, it might be faster than driving.
It's a choice to focus on how high gas prices might negatively impact suburban commuters -- who largely own their homes and can afford to operate a private vehicle -- rather people who can't own a car and are negatively impacted by low gas prices.
It also looks like the council plan for the Rouse Hills Shire indicates an 80% mode share for private vehicles. The single train station to downtown and infrequent buses are not getting people out of cars.
And your example is using a route with a toll! That is an example of the government hobbling driving.
I'm not saying we shouldn't build transit. Or that it even should be a lower priority. I'm simply saying we should also raise the cost of driving because that impacts a lot of decisions, including the trade-off between using transit and driving as you demonstrated with your example.
And the figures you're quoting are from before the Metro opened.
Which is why the train modal share is just 1%. People had to catch a bus or drive to somewhere like Epping or Parramatta to get a train. The Hills were a pretty notorious public transport blackspot before the NW Metro opened.
I don't see the logic in saying it hasn't led to a shift in modal share before it opened?
Probably sometime during the Fraser government, back in the 1980s.
So an important difference between Australia and the US is that the Australian Federal Government already has a national Fuel Excise Tax, as well as Goods and Services Tax on Fuel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_taxes_in_Australia
But going back to the main point.
People can't choose public transport over the car if the public transport system in the area isn't up to scratch.
People on higher incomes can afford any increase to the cost of driving the most.
And they tend to live in the inner suburbs that have the best access to public transport.
It's the working class people in the car-dependent outer suburbs — the western suburbs of Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane in particular — who are the least able to afford it.
And when you attempt to increase the cost of driving when there aren't any good alternatives, you prompt a not-unjustified political backlash.
That political backlash is real. It's why — for example — Australia no longer has a price on carbon.
And from a social policy standpoint, you effectively financially penalise people for being poor.
The reason why I cited the Northwest Metro is because it's a great example of a rail service that's better than driving for many trips. And it was built in an area that previously had quite poor access to public transport.
That means improving density along existing rail corridors, opening up new higher-density mixed-use developments along new rail corridors, and retrofitting high-frequency (every 10 minutes or greater) bus services to existing suburban areas.
Once good alternatives are in place, that's when you ideally should take steps to make driving less attractive.
That can range from local interventions, such as pedestrianising streets and reducing the mandatory parking requirements in local planning codes.
It can potentially include congestion surcharges, parking taxes, etc.
And at a state or national level, increasing fuel excise, motor vehicles registration, stamp duty, etc.
"Probably sometime during the Fraser government, back in the 1980s."
Huh? So you are actually agreeing with me. You think Australia can increase its gas tax today?
"So an important difference between Australia and the US is that the Australian Federal Government already has a national Fuel Excise Tax, as well as Goods and Services Tax on Fuel: "
Also this isn't a difference between Australia and the US. The US also has a federal gas tax.
@owen@heatofignition@mondoman712 The really big missing piece of the puzzle in Australia — even the major capital cities — is the frequency of suburban bus services.
If you want to financially penalise people for driving, I think at a minimum you need to get that service up to a 10 minute all-day frequency.
Regional and rural transport services are another weak spot as well.
And I think you're more likely to get the results you're after if the increase in driving costs (however it's implemented) comes either at the same time, or after services are improved to a reasonable standard.
You keep ignoring my question which just confirms my suspicion that the answer is "never."
If your answer is "only after every person in Australia has 10 minute transit service within a 15 minute walk (20 hours a day??), your practical answer is never. Because that will never happen.
And you haven't even engaged with my point that you're equity analysis is just vibes. You haven't actually done any cost/benefit analysis.
However if we decide it's ok to make it expensive to own a car, we actually can envision a world where everyone lives within transit because people will choose to do that.
And the money we raise from fuel taxes -- which are mostly paid by wealthy and middle class earners -- can be used to actually expand transit.
The wealthiest parts of Australia's capital cities are in the inner-city, which already have access to good public transport.
The poorest areas tend to be the outer suburbs, where public transport is a half-hourly bus, and cycling involves navigating a six-lane stroad with no protected bike lane.
It's the opposite to the US, where in many metro areas the wealthiest white residents live in outer-suburban gated communities and the (often Black) working class have traditionally lived in the inner city.
The wealthiest suburbs in Melbourne are served by the (mostly inner-city) tram network. Toorak, Brighton, Kew, Camberwell, and increasingly Fitzroy.
And the poorest tend to be in the outer suburbs.
There's a whole history of why it played out differently to the US.
But the big factor for why someone lives in, say, Carrum Downs in outer southeast Melbourne (where the local public transport is by bus) is because it's all they can afford.
In the US, where the wealthiest people live in the outer suburbs, raising gas prices to encourage them to move to the inner city where there's better public transport would probably work.
The difference is that in Australia the wealthiest people actively avoid the outer suburbs.
It's the working class who tends to live in the outer suburbs.
Most Carrum Downs residents would gladly choose to live somewhere like Brighton or Toorak with good public transport. If they could afford it.
That means there needs to be decent alternatives to driving if you're going to increase the cost of driving.
I'm all for increasing the cost of driving, including fuel excises. And taxes on cars. And potentially congestion taxes.
But most people — at least in the mainland capitals — should be within comfortable walking distance of a public transport service that runs every 10 minutes first.
That's not currently the case.
Price mechanisms aren't as effective as they could be at changing behaviour if there are no viable alternatives in place.
So my answer is ideally petrol prices should be increased at the same time as decent bus services are rolled out across the capital cities.
And I think where public transport services are already at a decent standard, or as services are improved, we should be rolling out more localised disincentives to driving, such as pedestrianising streets.
Right, it sounds like we're mostly on the same page. If you scroll back up and read my original reply, I'm pushing back on multiple people communicating a hard line in the sand, no additional car ownership costs before there's some vague level of transit service.
That is a lot different than asking our policymakers to coordinate transportation changes, which you seem to be saying now. Here's the original post:
Saying alternatives need to be in place before you can discourage car ownership is a lot different than asking policymakers to coordinate transportation changes.
Its an important distinction because people have a delusional perception of what's already available. Every city has a bus system. People can use 20 minute bus service! And I guarantee if middle class folks start riding those buses, the service will improve.
And additionally there are places that will never have transit. We can't hope people will eventually just stop living in rural areas and then after that, finally, we'll raise fuel taxes.
I tend to view transport and urban planning policy as being deeply connected. There's a number of tools in that policy toolkit that should ideally be used together to reduce car dependency. And pricing is one of them.
And I get the impression that for a number of pragmatic reasons, there might be some differences in what good policy looks like in the US versus Australia.
As an aside, country areas are an interesting side case. I think in many country areas, it is possible to get much better services than currently exist, but that's a different discussion.
@heatofignition
But it's impossible to put really good infrastructure in place while cars consume so much space, all that happens is endless complaining from car owners about removal of car parks or one more lane is needed etc
We have all the infrastructure we need to start, we can close many roads to cars and uses buses and bicycles in cities while simultaneously building out even better PT and medium density dwellings to stop toxic urban sprawl add green spaces, business etc on land previously allocated to car parks but that can't happen becase we get endless complaints from car owners.
Will it be disruptive ? Of course, for a decade or more but then if we don't, in a decade we'll still be arguing we should have started a decade ago .
To get to my job it would require several miles of biking followed by an hour bus trip. We don't just "all have" the ability to take busses and bikes everywhere. Plus during none of that time do I have access to a bike lane, so I'd be just praying I don't get run over by some dick head
I live in rural Washington state. The nearest bus station from where I work is a two mile walk. The nearest bus station from where I live is a three mile walk. I live twenty miles from where I work. Biking and Bussing simply aren't feasible.
I like bikes and busses. We don't need bikes and busses to solve this problem, we need telecommuting and walkable communities.
If gas was just $6/hr then there would be a ton of demand for busses. So the bus routes would expand to all the people in your area. And it would be easy to fund because the rich would be subsidizing it.
I live in a city that has 'good' transit by North American standards. It's 25km from my house to the office, and takes about half an hour to drive. If I were to take the supposedly 'good' transit, it would take 2 hours each way. That would mean that both my spouse and I would leave home before our kids even wake up, so they would have to manage getting themselves out of bed, fed, and off to school with no parent in the house, we would get home far too late to take them to any extracurricular activities, never mind making sure they eat healthy home cooked meals. I could move closer to the office, but then my COL would increase by 2-3X, meaning that all the good stuff I can afford for them now would become too expensive.
So sure, I have transit, but it's fucking useless.
We're trying that in Canada right now, and it's making a lot of people very angry.
Those people are ignorant and wrong, but they're loud enough that even parties on the left are saying "maybe we should try something else."
It is really interesting to think about how we built our entire society around gas being insanely cheap. You can buy a gallon of it for $3, which is as much as you would pay for a large cup of coffee in most places, something which we have essentially an infinite supply of.
No smartass i will want to get on a fucking bus or tram that provide these benefits and more, with other people that might actually talk to me, help me and allow me to be part of society. Fucking hell get your 1950s science fiction fantasies outta here.
Ahh yea the trains my city spent a billion dollars on to build half what they planned, late, already crumbling infrastructure just four years after delivering it that doesn’t have a single stop on my side of town.
Public transit is not great for people with disabilities, specifically mobility issues. It has lots of advantages over cars, but this is not one of them.
Around here it is. Every local public transport vehicle has either level entrance or ways to help people on board. Also reserved seats close to the entrance that people have to give up.
All I'm saying is that accessibility is not a solved problem. Disabled people still need to haul themselves to the station/stop and then to wherever they need to go. Even just riding on public transit can be more taxing in terms of keeping your body upright, fighting against inertia every time it stops and starts. Public transit can be great, but you have to admit it's less accessible than a car that comes to your door.
Car-centric living discourages physical activity and contributes to physical and cognitive decline. Walking is better:
Additionally, low-intensity physical exercise, including walking, exerts anti-aging effects and helps prevent age-related diseases, making it a powerful tool for promoting healthy aging. This is exemplified by the lifestyles of individuals in Blue Zones, regions of the world with the highest concentration of centenarians. Walking and other low-intensity physical activities contribute significantly to the longevity of individuals in these regions, with walking being an integral part of their daily lives
What you're trying to describe is named public transit not robottaxi, especially the argument that driverless cars will reduce transportation costs doesn't make any sense. It adds complexity to an already incredibly inefficient mode of transport. For road train like trucking on highways maybe it makes sense, for personal transportation on arbitrary streets it just doesn't make any sense.
There is no technology to help aging gracefully, it's in the respect and help of our peers and in our interactions with them, in the structure of our communities... Entering the sterile empty self driving car isn't actually more dignified than being picked up by a real human being. And sitting down in a tram or metro isn't less dignified than being shuttled around by a driverless vehicle.
It's not fuck Progress, it's fuck Cars, just because asbestos or coal power were progress at some point doesn't mean we should embrace them forever, the same goes for cars and self driving changes nothing about that. If cars still rule the world in 100 years we'll be dying even more than we already are.
"any progress is good, no matter at what cost" is the chorus of the progressive fascist. The Nazis were infamously about that kind of thing. Their whole M.O. was "purifying the human gene pool to progress human evolution" for crying out loud. Progress isn't always a good thing.
Because normal taxis are extremely expensive, and provide poor coverage in many areas. It would cost me over $30 to take a taxi to the nearest grocery store and back. It would cost me over $80 return from my house to the middle of the nearest town large enough to have a Walmart. The taxis also only operate during daytime hours in my area.
Because they don't require a human worker, which by far is the most expensive and challenging part of running a taxi service. The operating cost per hour is super low.
Robotaxis only need downtime for charging and regular maintenance, probably only 2-3 hours per day in total.
If the operating cost is as low as you said, why do you think these robotaxi companies wouldn’t eventually charge similar fare to normal taxis given that (1) the market can bear such fare now and (2) the reduced operating cost would give them higher profit margins?
Frankly, I’m not convinced yet that the operating cost is that much lower. Covering more areas and operating almost 24 hours a day sound like more fleet and more frequent maintenance to me. Wouldn’t these increase the operating cost, and thus, fare? Not to mention paying the engineers to maintain the software/AI system. I assume engineers are much more expensive than drivers.
What you're suggesting in the first paragraph is price fixing, and because there are multiple companies it would require collusion to pull off. Not saying it doesn't happen, but generally speaking in capitalism competition will push prices down. That's why buying a TV is so cheap, and why you can get bananas for almost nothing still. Most products prices are pushed down by competition from multiple companies.
The robo-taxis themselves probably cost on the order of $100,000 at the moment, due to all the extra computers and sensors and stuff on top of a standard EV. Spread out over their expected lifetime of say 5 years at 20 hours per day, that's only $2.70 per hour.
They're electric, so there's that cost too, lets say they drive their maximum charge per day (400km) which is actually quite high for a taxi, that adds about $20 per day in electricity costs, or another $1 per hour.
Maintenance on electric cars is almost non-existent, you pretty much just need to rotate and replace the tires and change the cabin filter. This isn't insignificant, you'd change the tires every 100 days or so with that much driving, but you're talking about $5 per day, or $0.25 per hour. That's literally my entire warranty work for my EV. There simply aren't as many parts to wear or break as in a gas vehicle.
There will of course be other costs like regular cleaning, and fixing the upholstery from wear by patrons, I can't estimate that, but I suspect it's not a huge amount.
Plus insurance, also cheap per hour when you're operating that much.
So the total operating cost for a robotaxi per hour is around $4-5.
Even the cheapest taxi driver is going to be making what $15-20 per hour (with tips), in some cities it's double that.
So the cost to the company for running is going to be 75-80% less with a robotaxi fleet.
The price per hour for robotaxi's will also continue dropping, as EV battery costs come down and the self-driving technology matures they will be able to produce these at scale and go from a $100,000 current price to probably $50,000 over the next decade. The price of labour is going to keep going up though.
These big companies investing in self-driving systems are spending billions because they know how much money will be made on them. My wife and I pay about $300/month to have a second vehicle that we use only 5-6 times in that period. If I could have access to a $10 per trip robotaxi it would make far more sense to drop that second vehicle and use those services for the odd times I need it.
I agree with what you said about price fixing and competition. But why do you think multiple robotaxi companies will survive in the (long) future? We know that’s not what happened with Uber/Airbnb that killed their competitors with predatory pricing. How do you know this time it would be different?
Thanks for the detailed cost breakdown. You seem to have thought about this deeply. But I don’t see labour cost (e.g., engineers) in the breakdown. Why did you not include it?
I agree that the battery cost (and thus operating cost) would go down, but again I’m not convinced it would mean lower fare because that’s not what usually happens. I also agree these companies know how much money will be made on self-driving systems, which is exactly why I think they would aim for a monopoly, and the one surviving would charge passengers as high as it can.
In you and your wife’s case, is using a normal taxi 5-6 times not cheaper than the second vehicle cost?
Anyway, from what you wrote, it seems the biggest issue here is cost/fare. In that case, public transit, which we already have and benefits all people (including both the elderly and people with disabilities), would be a better solution than any taxi.
There are three ridesharing companies in the city I live near, plus regular taxis. Is there an example of a region that only has Uber that you can think of? Airbnb also has competition from VRBO and local hotels keeping nightly prices down.
The engineering to design the product is built into the cost of the vehicle, it gets amortized over a massive number of units over many years and therefore doesn't need to be included in back of the napkin calculations like this.
I'm pretty sure that the government in my country (Canada) would destroy a self-driving car monopoly before it could establish itself. The EU probably would too. They would likely mandate the company license it's tech to other manufactures at government set rates like they do currently with a few other industries like Cellphone networks. That being said, there are already more than a half-dozen big name companies working on it, I highly doubt only one will succeed.
I live in an area very poorly served by Taxis, since I'm about a half hour (on a highway) outside of the city. We only have 2 taxis (total vehicles, not companies) in the community that only operate during daytime hours and a ride into the city is about $50 one way. $300 doesn't go very far when a return trip is $100+ tip. The bus into town only runs twice in the morning and twice back out in the afternoon and if your destination isn't directly on the main route it can take 2+ hours to get to a specific location in the city.
Self-driving busses would be great too, they would increase access in many areas reducing the need for cars. They are the exact same tech though there's almost no difference between driving a car or a bus from a machine learning perspective. The decrease in costs would be less though, since busses are much more capital intensive compared to their labour cost. They may only save 30-40% of costs by eliminating the drivers. Busses also operate at much higher utilization rates already.
Robotaxis are a bad idea. They are the flying car of this generation. They fulfill no function not already better fulfilled by already existing technologies, while having numerous, tremendous, and probably intractable problems.
As they pointed out in your original post, it's not, "the subscription model...for something that you already paid & own." This isn't subscription seat warmers, it's paying for an additional service outside the car. You can argue it's too expensive, but without their internet connection and servers, these features wouldn't be possible.
Remote start has been around for well over a decade and did not require internet or a subscription. If you just subscribe and use the feature then clearly the neccesary equipment for remote start is already installed and you paid for that equipment regardless if you use the subscription service.
@FireRetardant@n2burns Remote start can mean different things. I'd hope a subscription based one was via a server and works where normal direct RF fobs wouldn't (like from another country).
If it is just direct RF based remote start that shouldn't be a subscription.
So what happens when your car has no cell service? Or you don't own a phone that supports the app? The only use case I can see is long distance remote start but I'm struggling to determine why someone would reasonably need that.
The only reasons they went away from RF is to justify subscriptions and further push the smart device trend where everything can connect to your phone.
RF range is very limited and there is no feedback of success/failure or current state. My neighbour's RF remote start wouldn't work through 2 townhouses. It also doesn't work from high-rises or office building.
How often do you lose cell reception in a parking lot? (Mostly open space with few things to interfere with cell signal).
You are aware that there are rf solutions that provide feedback? Not saying range limitations don't exist, but there are solutions that claim to provide a fair reach.
I am aware. I didn't think it was necessary to explain that it's possible to make an data stream reliable, but doing so requires a lot more power which isn't great for a coin-cell battery.
I'm very aware of RF bands. I didn't think I needed to explain how RF worked, why the range of a car remote is so limited, and why is impractical to use a lower band.
As the frequency gets lower, the data throughout decreases and the size of the antenna should increase.
@Professorozone Yes that would be a bit silly (but could be useful to do for your SO when they have an issue while you are on a trip). But just from the top of a tall housing tower to a car in the basement needs something better than a RF fob
The curfew alert could be more applicable when in another country.
There's no need to host servers for 99% (maybe 100%) of this stuff. All the remote start features can be done through a direct connection between your phone and car. There's no need for a third computer to be involved, except to check if you've paid for it. As long as your car has wifi access (or phone network access, which would need to be paid for) then it can communicate with other devices on the network/internet. Sure, you still have to pay for the internet, but that's paid to the ISP, not the car company.
I'm not sure which direct connection you're thinking of, but for most phones that would be limited to WiFi (probably WiFi Direct), Bluetooth, and maybe NFC. NFC range is tiny and Bluetooth's is pretty small. WiFi's range is approximately the same thing as an RF remote, which isn't great.
Also, if we did have direct connection (which would be great for confirming the start worked, and the status of the car), why would we need internet??
By direct I meant routing to the car and user device, not through company servers. There's no need for that. Both devices are computers. The only reason the company would need it routed through them first is to make sure you've paid up.
Yes, I mentioned that. However, the cell plan would be a lot cheaper. There shouldn't be a lot of data coming through.
It would mean exposing it as much as any other device is exposed. It'd have a port open and listening for communication. Honestly, I'm pretty sure it'd be identical to how it is currently. It's not like sending the communication from the company server is any different than from any other device. Its not connecting directly to the company's servers. It's a wireless service. Sure, it needs security measures, but it already needs that.
IMHO, It makes sense though. Piracy and open source are two approaches to attacking the enclosure of public (intellectual) space. Roads for cars are literally an enclosure of public space. The subscription model just extends from this logic.
Edit: These are also things that make sense because the car has to have cell service via a provider.
Features like this really do require a subscription model. This isn’t enabling remote start by pressing a key on your fob. This is sending a request to a server, which connects to a cell tower to broadcast signal saying “turn on this car”. That stuff ain’t free. Someone has to pay AT&T for the data connection.
What BMW was (is?) doing is abhorrent. You’re buying a car with heated seats, and you have to subscribe to hit the button.
Features like this really do require a subscription model. This isn’t enabling remote start by pressing a key on your fob. This is sending a request to a server, which connects to a cell tower to broadcast signal saying “turn on this car”. That stuff ain’t free. Someone has to pay AT&T for the data connection.
Only because they unethically intentionally designed it that way, when they could've just as easily picked a different design that could've worked entirely locally. They are inventing excuses for rentiership.
Sure, you need to pay for the connection, whether wifi for cell. There's no need for specific servers or computation to take place. Yeah, you'll need to pay for another (low data usage) phone line probably, but that should be it.
Then let me have the remote start that has existed for decades as ONE option (without a monthly subscription), and the remote start that requires an entire infrastructure that isn't required for me to look out my window and remote start my car as an option for those who want or need it.
That's Kia - I thought we were speaking more broadly. We drive a Toyota product and were offered nothing but the app. However, to your point that may have been poor salesmanship.
There is plenty of subscription or always online software out there that is cracked and fully working, Adobe products, Microsoft office, Spotify, etc.
Obviously any service that can't be replaced with a free or open source alternative won't work, first thing I think that would be on the chopping block would be anything that uses GPS, though that's just a guess, I don't really have intimate knowledge of this
It's a mix of the CAFE laws and consumer habits based on decades of unsafe street design pushing consumers to larger vehicles which makes them feel safer and anyone outside them less safe, which makes them lean toward larger vehicles to match. Viscous cycle and arms race. Point being policy is part of it, but consumer behavior isn't blameless.
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